Taleb explores the relationship between time and fragility. He argues that the most fragile aspect of this tension is predictability, as the future is fundamentally always uncertain. While literature is about the past, technology is at its best when it is invisible or even self-displacing. Taleb also accentuates the difference between perishable and nonperishable items, noting that the robustness of an item is proportional to its life. Furthermore, he notes that young people tend to propose fragile ideas, and that amateurs in any discipline can sometimes be the most authentic, since they don’t fall back on “expert opinion,” even as evidence or intuition lead them in other directions. Taleb expresses his belief that there are secrets to our world, but that only practice can reveal lasting truth, which means that dismissing practices that have been around for a long time (and are therefore more likely to endure) is unwise.

This chapter considers the flaws of the medical industry and the importance of understanding risks in complex systems. He argues that medical techniques should only be used when the health payoff visibly exceeds its potential harm, and that diseases of civilization have historically resulted from the attempt to make life comfortable for ourselves.